Thursday, May 31, 2007

Ram Bharose!!

Murphy’s Law states that “When something has to go wrong, it will surely go wrong!” I am an optimist, it translates for me as “When something has to go right, it will surely go right!!” at least looking at the India’s growth story, it’s very much true.

This week, the speculations are building high on Tata Steel being in talks to take over Corus, an Anglo-Dutch MNC with operations in many European countries and ranked 7th size-wise. This will be India's biggest foreign acquisition, valued at $10.4 billion. And paradoxically this takeover is fuelled by couple of foreign banks. A perfect slap for Critics of Globalization; long claiming that the west is controlling the world Economy and uses this to help their multinationals to dominate the world.

Not only Tata’s, Ambanis, Birlas, Mahindras, Videocon and most other Indian majors have made foreign acquisitions. Wipro has become the leading foreign takeover specialist in software. It has bought five companies this year and is evaluating a dozen more. Reliance has a higher international credit rating than General Motors or Ford.

Indian entrepreneur are tapping every opportunity to quench their thirst for growth, organically or inorganically. No surprise they are on buying spree. Ironically, rather than rising with the help of the state, they appear to be rising despite the state, although. It’s consecutive fourth year we are anticipating around 8% growth and that also on the back of 22 years of very respectable 6% annual growth. The prowling tiger is catching its pace.

In retrospect it gives me a feeling like series of failures and flawed implementations of government policies, reluctantly made decisions under pressure and desperation, are giving us the upper hand today. It sounds something like, since “Lalu” became Rail Minister, Indian Railway is improving. But it is true.

Miserable failure of “Two child policy”, used to be thought as reason for economic and social stagnation. Economists are now unanimous that rising population is giving India a 'demographic dividend' that will soon help it grow faster than China. China's population will stop growing in another couple of decades, thanks to draconian implementation of “One Child Policy”. But India's overall population is projected to keep rising at least for another ten decades.

Indian politicians were never willing to embrace the idea of Globalization and Liberalization. Under the name of Social Justice which was actually inferiority complex, they never wished to relinquish the control over the system. And in 1991, we suddenly found ourselves in deep welcome trouble of being out of forex reserves. With no other alternative left, reforms were introduced.

Reforms dint move any farther for a long. At this point everybody was blaming Government for missing manufacturing outsourcing train. This opportunity was decently captured by China and other South-East Asian countries. Export oriented growth model of South-East Asia seemed very successful. But, this frustratingly slow pace of reforms saved us form South Asian Crisis that followed. In fact later on we caught much more lucrative knowledge outsourcing flight.

Certainly! God works in mysterious ways! So does Lalu! And so does India!

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